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aws〖试〗用账号(www.2km.me)_IMF revises growth projection

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The United States grew 12.5% year-on-year in the second quarter while the UK logged a significant 22.5% growth and the eurozone chalked up a 14.3% expansion.

AS Covid-19 movement restrictions start to ease worldwide, economies around the globe are clawing their way towards recovery. This is evident from the strong growth recorded during the second quarter of 2021.

The United States grew 12.5% year-on-year in the second quarter while the UK logged a significant 22.5% growth and the eurozone chalked up a 14.3% expansion.

China’s economy expanded by 7.9% in the second quarter, down from 18.3% in the first quarter. Initial views are that generally, the strong performance will extend to the third quarter. China had rebounded faster compared with others due to its zero-Covid policy. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s economy grew by 16.1% from a 0.5% contraction in the previous quarter.

Although the fast rebound can be attributed to the extreme low-base comparisons, the pace of vaccination rollouts, which had led to the easing of pandemic restrictions, also played a key role in driving the economy. Coupled with the pent-up demand drawn by the lockdowns, the global economy is well on its way to recovery.

However, the outbreak of the Delta variant has certainly dented the recovery prospects as some countries reimposed restrictions to rein in the virus. Also, there were concerns that the emergence of new variants could blunt the vaccination effects and therefore could derail growth. This is true not only in advanced economies but more so for low-income economies due to the divergence in vaccination access and distribution.

At the same time, supply chain bottlenecks pose another hurdle for the global economy. Pandemic outbreaks, coupled with weather disruptions, have resulted in shortages of critical input materials, dragging manufacturing activities in several countries. Combined with the demand and rebound in commodity prices, consumer price inflation has been surging on the back of the great mismatch of supply and demand.

Due to these factors, the International Monetary Fund (IMF). during its recent annual meeting. has revised its global growth for 2021 to 5.9%, slightly below its July forecast of 6% while keeping the 2022 forecast unchanged at 4.9%, indicating that short-term growth prospect is still tilted to the downside.

Possibility of stagflation?

In light of the surging inflation rate, slowing growth and IMF’s revision, there are mounting speculations and concerns that the US economy is showing signs of an imminent stagflation.

Stagflation occurs when an economy has persistently high inflation combined with stagnant growth. It is caused by cost-push inflation when some force or condition increases the cost of production. A sudden adverse shock on the supply side, such as an increase in oil prices, can increase the possibility of a stagflation.

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